HybridStatsHow fast each race ran. Every finisher is measured against their own race history, not the rest of the field, so a strong field does not make a course look fast.
We predict each athlete's time from their own race history; course speed is how much faster or slower the field ran than predicted.
- Speed: how much faster (+) or slower (−) the field ran than predicted. Fast and Slow mean more than 1% either way; anything closer is Average.
- Beat: the share of finishers who ran faster than their prediction.
- N: the number of finishers with an earlier singles race to predict from. Men and women are pooled.
SpeedBeatn
1+6.4%Fast92%128
2+4.6%Fast89%433
3+4.5%Fast85%34
4+4.3%Fast87%491
5+4.2%Fast81%99
6+4.1%Fast81%118
7+3.9%Fast75%56
8+3.7%Fast76%191
9+3.7%Fast83%352
10+3.6%Fast72%97
11+3.6%Fast75%147
12+3.6%Fast78%174
13+3.5%Fast84%116
14+3.5%Fast75%75
15+3.5%Fast77%142
16+3.4%Fast80%45
17+3.4%Fast79%214
18+3.4%Fast75%59
19+3.2%Fast75%65
20+3.1%Fast78%250
21+3.1%Fast81%320
22+2.9%Fast75%61
23+2.9%Fast75%444
24+2.9%Fast66%32
25+2.9%Fast68%59
26+2.9%Fast72%250
27+2.7%Fast75%79
28+2.7%Fast70%121
29+2.7%Fast74%74
30+2.7%Fast71%84
31+2.6%Fast72%90
32+2.4%Fast74%172
33+2.4%Fast70%155
34+2.4%Fast73%210
35+2.3%Fast66%47
36+2.3%Fast71%337
37+2.3%Fast70%37
38+2.2%Fast76%91
39+2.2%Fast68%183
40+2.2%Fast73%49
41+2.2%Fast69%112
42+2.1%Fast68%167
43+2.1%Fast75%133
44+2.0%Fast70%73
45+2.0%Fast69%102
46+2.0%Fast66%160
47+2.0%Fast68%753
48+2.0%Fast69%45
49+1.9%Fast68%307
50+1.9%Fast70%96
51+1.9%Fast62%63
52+1.9%Fast75%263
53+1.9%Fast68%97
54+1.9%Fast61%36
55+1.9%Fast70%308
56+1.8%Fast70%181
57+1.8%Fast58%93
58+1.8%Fast67%433
59+1.8%Fast65%280
60+1.8%Fast70%122
61+1.7%Fast69%54
62+1.7%Fast68%53
63+1.7%Fast67%373
64+1.7%Fast68%206
65+1.6%Fast68%41
66+1.6%Fast71%113
67+1.6%Fast64%388
68+1.6%Fast62%45
69+1.6%Fast68%199
70+1.6%Fast70%100
71+1.4%Fast66%282
72+1.4%Fast67%93
73+1.4%Fast58%232
74+1.4%Fast63%123
75+1.4%Fast65%335
76+1.3%Fast65%79
77+1.3%Fast59%184
78+1.3%Fast59%164
79+1.2%Fast66%268
80+1.2%Fast57%58
81+1.2%Fast59%112
82+1.2%Fast60%47
83+1.2%Fast58%33
84+1.1%Fast61%66
85+1.1%Fast60%48
86+1.1%Fast63%56
87+1.0%Fast63%120
88+1.0%Average56%127
89+1.0%Average50%36
90+1.0%Average61%256
91+1.0%Average58%167
92+0.9%Average65%421
93+0.9%Average64%194
94+0.9%Average57%42
95+0.9%Average63%72
96+0.9%Average61%46
97+0.9%Average62%37
98+0.8%Average49%69
99+0.8%Average59%278
100+0.8%Average59%154
101+0.8%Average58%72
102+0.8%Average58%184
103+0.8%Average61%165
104+0.8%Average60%410
105+0.8%Average52%153
106+0.8%Average54%52
107+0.7%Average61%358
108+0.7%Average55%261
109+0.7%Average55%314
110+0.7%Average57%362
111+0.7%Average57%133
112+0.7%Average55%137
113+0.7%Average57%58
114+0.6%Average58%73
115+0.6%Average64%45
116+0.6%Average57%349
117+0.6%Average55%129
118+0.5%Average55%419
119+0.5%Average52%65
120+0.5%Average60%204
121+0.4%Average55%332
122+0.4%Average60%47
123+0.4%Average53%115
124+0.4%Average56%234
125+0.4%Average52%266
126+0.4%Average61%57
127+0.4%Average61%61
128+0.4%Average54%121
129+0.4%Average49%53
130+0.4%Average56%211
131+0.4%Average63%62
132+0.3%Average55%133
133+0.3%Average59%207
134+0.3%Average51%113
135+0.3%Average50%159
136+0.3%Average55%1492
137+0.3%Average56%137
138+0.3%Average53%173
139+0.3%Average55%200
140+0.2%Average56%70
141+0.2%Average52%229
142+0.2%Average56%133
143+0.2%Average53%259
144+0.2%Average50%80
145+0.2%Average56%431
146+0.2%Average59%87
147+0.2%Average55%284
148+0.2%Average53%216
149+0.2%Average56%133
150+0.2%Average53%228
151+0.2%Average50%267
152+0.1%Average56%233
153+0.1%Average48%61
154+0.1%Average50%90
155+0.1%Average54%56
156+0.0%Average50%840
157+0.0%Average49%287
158−0.0%Average55%33
159−0.0%Average49%213
160−0.0%Average56%196
161−0.1%Average54%197
162−0.1%Average48%87
163−0.2%Average52%150
164−0.3%Average53%111
165−0.3%Average52%230
166−0.3%Average54%59
167−0.3%Average46%50
168−0.3%Average45%144
169−0.4%Average52%230
170−0.4%Average57%86
171−0.4%Average50%129
172−0.4%Average45%139
173−0.4%Average48%120
174−0.4%Average48%1268
175−0.5%Average49%128
176−0.5%Average48%73
177−0.5%Average44%319
178−0.6%Average51%78
179−0.6%Average38%103
180−0.6%Average48%90
181−0.6%Average49%35
182−0.6%Average50%167
183−0.6%Average53%59
184−0.6%Average43%323
185−0.7%Average47%322
186−0.7%Average46%240
187−0.7%Average55%49
188−0.7%Average53%250
189−0.7%Average46%311
190−0.7%Average47%55
191−0.7%Average46%289
192−0.8%Average49%118
193−0.8%Average43%138
194−0.8%Average38%63
195−0.9%Average44%302
196−0.9%Average45%426
197−0.9%Average43%176
198−0.9%Average47%45
199−0.9%Average38%82
200−0.9%Average45%228
201−1.0%Average45%127
202−1.0%Slow45%47
203−1.0%Slow43%30
204−1.0%Slow48%85
205−1.1%Slow45%58
206−1.1%Slow47%57
207−1.1%Slow47%99
208−1.2%Slow38%101
209−1.2%Slow43%120
210−1.2%Slow45%123
211−1.3%Slow40%98
212−1.3%Slow46%87
213−1.3%Slow31%35
214−1.3%Slow43%228
215−1.3%Slow36%58
216−1.4%Slow41%295
217−1.4%Slow38%223
218−1.4%Slow39%163
219−1.4%Slow47%51
220−1.4%Slow35%151
221−1.4%Slow45%49
222−1.4%Slow40%87
223−1.5%Slow53%32
224−1.5%Slow44%99
225−1.5%Slow37%46
226−1.5%Slow34%122
227−1.5%Slow35%778
228−1.5%Slow37%450
229−1.5%Slow37%281
230−1.6%Slow36%231
231−1.6%Slow37%99
232−1.6%Slow38%272
233−1.7%Slow36%81
234−1.7%Slow35%46
235−1.8%Slow42%136
236−1.8%Slow35%298
237−2.1%Slow31%245
238−2.1%Slow34%184
239−2.1%Slow38%47
240−2.1%Slow37%60
241−2.2%Slow39%72
242−2.2%Slow22%59
243−2.3%Slow36%74
244−2.3%Slow28%61
245−2.3%Slow47%47
246−2.4%Slow37%101
247−2.4%Slow32%439
248−2.5%Slow35%46
249−2.5%Slow34%374
250−2.6%Slow34%170
251−2.7%Slow32%212
252−2.8%Slow27%77
253−2.8%Slow21%38
254−2.8%Slow42%118
255−2.8%Slow29%86
256−2.9%Slow31%211
257−2.9%Slow36%131
258−2.9%Slow29%93
259−3.0%Slow13%32
260−3.0%Slow19%58
261−3.1%Slow29%38
262−3.1%Slow30%253
263−3.1%Slow30%210
264−3.1%Slow31%507
265−3.1%Slow24%240
266−3.2%Slow20%99
267−3.3%Slow22%130
268−3.5%Slow20%54
269−3.5%Slow24%67
270−3.6%Slow25%92
271−3.6%Slow24%275
272−3.6%Slow35%83
273−3.8%Slow17%52
274−4.0%Slow32%34
275−4.0%Slow17%106
276−4.3%Slow23%169
277−4.5%Slow24%128
278−4.6%Slow19%72
279−4.7%Slow25%122
280−4.7%Slow13%64
281−4.7%Slow27%150
282−4.8%Slow16%31
283−4.9%Slow30%43
284−4.9%Slow17%41
285−5.0%Slow22%175
286−5.2%Slow14%35
287−6.8%Slow11%80
288−6.9%Slow10%173
289−7.0%Slow10%48
290−7.3%Slow9%144
291−8.2%Slow11%62
292−8.4%Slow12%172
293−12.4%Slow6%129
How it's measured & caveats
- A machine-learning model (LightGBM) predicts each finisher's time from their earlier races: how many, how recent, how fast, and how they were trending. A race never helps predict itself.
- Speed is a robust average of how far each finisher ran from their prediction, so one bad day does not move it. The average race scores zero.
- Unlike a PB rate, it knows that a second race is usually faster than a first, so a field full of newcomers does not make a course look fast.
- “Less certain” marks races with fewer than 50 finishers to predict from, or where a second, independent model disagrees by more than two points.
- Races with fewer than 30 such finishers are hidden by default. Weather, altitude and championship tapering also affect how fast a race runs.